Thursday, August 18, 2016

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Data Aggregation - The impact on your results

Does your model provide you with the most accurate picture of your balance sheet?  All asset liability models have to aggregate data at some point in the process.  The timing of that data aggregation can have an impact on the results you receive.  Most models in the market place today use instrument-level data from your core provider as a starting point for analysis.  However, what your model does with that information after it is received makes all the difference in the results.  Many models look for homogenous groups within the instrument-level data with which to perform the analysis.  The more categories that are used for analysis, the better.  However, the best solution and what is more unusual in the market place is a model that analyzes each instrument individually then aggregates the results for an easy to read report.

The charts above show the impact on income of a grouping of 10 commercial loans that re-price within 12 months.  Because timing is important of when each loan re-prices, being able to analyze each loan individually has a big impact in the results we have seen, even in the most simple balance sheet structures.  Models that are capable of this type of instrument level analysis are generally more expensive than models that aren’t capable of this analysis.  The above sample shows an income difference of 6.63% on just $3MM in loans, how big would the impact be on your portfolio? If you are making decisions on results that do not accurately portray your interest rate risk position, the cost could certainly be far greater with a “cheaper” model.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Developing rational balance sheet “Bogeys”; understanding the Interest Rate Risk associated with your Targets!

Balance sheet management has always been difficult but never more so than in today’s extended low rate environment. Since December of 2008 when the Fed dropped overnight funds to a range of 25 basis points many of the “routine” decisions were replaced with uncertainty and downright confusion. In retrospect, it is apparent that most managers were initially too conservative, as they expected rates to increase almost immediately. This period was followed by “impatience” and more accurately, “market pressure”, which has resulted in duration extension in both the loan and investment portfolios, at historically low rates. These phases were not necessarily “knee jerks”, but it is questionable how much planning and modeling actually preceded those decisions.   

Today, after more than eight years of lower rates, many banks are now left with greater interest rate risk on the books coupled with historically low margins and spreads.  Now is the time to develop a plan that generates an acceptable margin and spread regardless of where rates end up. Yes, it is possible, assuming management embraces reasonable expectations and is willing to model risk associated with their strategies.
First, determine the interest rate risk in the current balance sheet. Don’t assume the current positon is acceptable, or unacceptable, until the risk is quantified in various rate scenarios.  This evaluation should include a look at lower rates (at least 50 to 100 basis points for management purposes); “no change”; and up the usual increments. Of course the regulatory parameters are necessary but 200 basis points is a great guideline for current management decisions.
Examine the balance sheet and try to develop realistic cash flow projections generated by the loan and investment portfolios. Anticipating and planning for expected cash flow in various rate scenarios will pay huge dividends and lead to better spreads and margins. 

Even though most banks have extended loan and investment durations in the last eight years do not flatly assume the loan portfolio is “too long”, thereby generating excessive interest rate risk. Many banks could actually extend their fixed rate loan portfolio without creating excessive risk because they generate excellent cash flow from existing loans and investment portfolio, while funding with a large percentage of stable core deposits (backed by wholesale funding availability). That being said, keep in mind you may have to look a few years down the road to see the negative impact of too many fixed rate loans (or securities). On balance sheet liquidity (including stressed liquidity); and the shocked Market Value of Equity (MVE); and the loan to deposit ratio are necessary tools to help determine the degree of risk.

Conversely, do not assume a variable rate loan portfolio will be “bullet proof” in a rising rate environment. It is somewhat surprising, but the floor rate on many variable rate loans is considerably higher than the “Index plus the spread” used to initially price the loan. The “gap” between the index pricing and the floor may require considerable rate movement to increase current income. It is critically important to identify what rate movement is necessary for each loan to actually “pierce the floor”, thereby generating greater income. The other relevant issue is the lock-out period. Loans may not have a floor issue but may not be eligible to reprice immediately. In fact, it is not uncommon for some banks to routinely include a three or even five year (or longer) lock-out period that prevents repricing. And, in some cases the floor (which is helpful because it produces higher current income) and lock-out period may prevent repricing for the foreseeable future.

Lastly, be realistic regarding the loan “pipeline”. Be prepared for the best, but most projections are usually tainted with lender optimism and should be trimmed a bit. Have a funding plan, but try not to have excessive funds sitting in cash.
It is elementary, but question the viability and the cost of current funding sources going forward. Most banks have experienced a “rotation” of Time Deposits to transaction accounts (Money Market, Savings and NOW) as CD rates have cratered. It is a worthwhile exercise to model the increase (if any) in the cost of funds if deposits where to swing back to the more traditional CDs.  Plus, keep in mind some deposits will most likely seek greener pastures elsewhere, regardless of the rate offered.

The specifics mentioned here are just a few of the relevant issues to consider, but now is the time set targets and bogeys within the context of Interest Rate Risk going forward. “I think rates are going up” is not a strategy. In particular, beware of excessive cash. It makes the balance “look” better and it will react immediately to rising rates, but don’t expect to make up lost income with higher rates, sometime in the future! The cost of “waiting” will be nearly impossible to recoup down the road. Consider near term borrowings or alternative wholesale funding if needed. In any case, model various alternatives to determine what works best for the balance sheet within the bank’s risk guidelines.

 In summary, now is the time to manage future loan, investment, and funding strategies through a deep understanding of your current balance sheet and its behavior going forward! Good Luck!

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Duration Trend

We have added a new report to the Executive Summary of the BancPath report.  Many of our customers have requested and we have delivered a duration trend report of the investment and loan portfolio.  You will see this new page immediately after the Repricing Drift page at the end of the Executive Summary.  The goal of this page is to point to the changing risk profile of the bank based on the duration of the investment and loan portfolios.  If you have questions about this page, please let us know. 


DURATION Trend Analysis
24 mos ago
12 mos ago
9 mos ago
6 mos ago
3 mos ago
1 mos ago
Current
Treasuries
5.690
 
4.649
 
4.429
 
4.241
 
4.145
 
4.362
 
4.285
 
Agcy NC
6.459
 
4.218
 
4.034
 
3.806
 
3.569
 
3.540
 
3.463
 
Agcy Call
7.856
 
7.008
 
7.347
 
7.116
 
6.900
 
6.767
 
6.701
 
Agencies
7.763
 
6.244
 
5.946
 
5.717
 
5.492
 
5.430
 
5.359
 
Muni GO
5.456
 
3.262
 
4.619
 
4.055
 
3.125
 
2.839
 
2.568
 
Muni REV
5.098
 
3.465
 
4.197
 
3.506
 
2.833
 
2.690
 
2.653
 
Municipals
5.318
 
3.372
 
4.375
 
3.738
 
2.956
 
2.753
 
2.570
 
CMO Fix
2.050
 
1.385
 
1.402
 
1.414
 
1.355
 
1.325
 
1.396
 
CMO Flt
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
MBS Fix
2.411
 
2.719
 
2.945
 
2.769
 
2.738
 
2.771
 
3.288
 
MBS ARM
0.883
 
4.644
 
0.964
 
0.149
 
0.128
 
0.106
 
0.169
 
MBS/CMO
2.026
 
2.948
 
2.619
 
2.374
 
2.335
 
2.349
 
3.180
 
Corp/Other
0.000
 
8.043
 
7.852
 
7.664
 
7.455
 
7.374
 
7.302
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Invest
6.496
 
4.964
 
5.098
 
4.768
 
4.418
 
4.386
 
4.318
 
Total Comm'l
3.320
 
2.762
 
2.699
 
2.599
 
2.261
 
2.267
 
2.238
 
Total Comm'l RE
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
0.000
 
Total RE
3.943
 
3.749
 
3.731
 
3.697
 
4.060
 
4.176
 
4.357
 
Total AG
2.170
 
1.866
 
1.897
 
1.811
 
1.764
 
1.790
 
1.955
 
Total Cons
2.663
 
2.734
 
2.744
 
2.790
 
2.460
 
2.407
 
2.368
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross Loans
3.119
 
2.667
 
2.602
 
2.552
 
2.389
 
2.423
 
2.473
 
Earning Assets
4.436
 
3.448
 
3.612
 
3.304
 
3.171
 
3.185
 
2.978